Storms

WW 622 SEVERE TSTM AL FL LA MS CW 241735Z - 250000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest and Southern Alabama
  Western Florida Panhandle
  Southeast Louisiana
  Southeast Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Small clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to develop and intensify this afternoon across the Watch
area and gradually move towards the coast.  The stronger
thunderstorms will pose a risk for wet microbursts capable of 55 to
65 mph gusts and scattered wind damage.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of New Orleans LA to 35 miles north northeast of Crestview FL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
34015.

...Smith

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WW 0622 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 622

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MEAD..08/24/26

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-241940-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN              BUTLER              CHOCTAW             
CLARKE               CONECUH             COVINGTON           
CRENSHAW             ESCAMBIA            MOBILE              
MONROE               WASHINGTON          


FLC033-091-113-241940-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ESCAMBIA             OKALOOSA            SANTA ROSA          


LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-095-103-105-117-241940-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON            LAFOURCHE           LIVINGSTON          
ORLEANS              PLAQUEMINES         ST. BERNARD         

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MD 2115 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN

Mesoscale Discussion 2115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241903Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely-scattered thunderstorms are expected to
overspread much of the northern Great Basin through early evening.
The more intense thunderstorms will be capable of severe downburst
winds. However, the overall threat should remain transient/isolated
enough to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, GOES imagery has shown a steady
uptick in coverage and depth of convective cumulus across the
central and northern Great Basin. This comes as temperatures warm
into the mid 80s to low 90s and lingering inhibition is eroded.
Based on recent surface observations and the recent 18z LKN
sounding, MLCAPE values generally between 250-500 J/kg are likely
overspreading much of the region, and low-level lapse rates are
approaching dry adiabatic with LCLs estimated to be near 2 to 2.5
km. Although buoyancy magnitudes are generally fairly modest, the
dry and deeply-mixed boundary layer is favorable for accelerating
downdrafts - especially with the deeper convective cores that can be
influenced by 30-35 knot mid-level flow above 6 km as sampled by the
LKN sounding (which may promote some degree of storm longevity and
organization). In general, thunderstorm coverage and longevity is
expected to remain fairly limited given weak large-scale forcing for
ascent, modest buoyancy, and somewhat weak deep-layer wind shear,
but latest CAM ensemble guidance suggests gusts up to 60-75 mph will
be possible with the more intense downbursts.

..Moore/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   40630834 40500897 40381024 39741131 38961216 38821264
            38911328 39281405 40141461 40521545 40701599 41111617
            42651593 43031566 43351522 43511471 43681382 43930885
            43890833 43650787 43030756 42150747 40990791 40630834 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

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MD 2114 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MAINE

Mesoscale Discussion 2114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...northern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241752Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail appear possible this afternoon into evening.
A watch is currently not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a vigorous vorticity maximum centered over the
Champlain Valley, visible satellite imagery indicates deepening
cumulus across the discussion area amidst a warming and
destabilizing air mass with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Eventual
thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon as height
falls/cooling aloft overspread the warming boundary layer,
contributing to further air mass destabilization. The kinematic
environment features strong mid/upper-level winds, resulting in
long, straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells with an
associated hail risk. Isolated damaging wind gusts also appear
possible owing to the steepening low-level lapse rates across the
region, which will enhance evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud
layer.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   45467106 47446963 47736870 47486768 46866764 45666891
            44967003 44617055 44707100 45467106 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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MD 2113 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY

Mesoscale Discussion 2113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...southeast Alabama and the central Florida Panhandle
into the lower Savannah River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241653Z - 241930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts are possible
with thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon. A
watch is unlikely due to the expected limited coverage of the
threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and lightning data indicate a
gradually deepening cumulus field and incipient thunderstorm
development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the
region and along evolving sea breeze boundaries. The 12Z observed
soundings across the region sampled a very moist boundary layer,
contributing to a strongly unstable air mass for elevated parcels.
Since those observations, surface temperatures have warmed into the
lower 90s with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg.

Generally weak vertical shear and the absence of appreciable
large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to limit the potential
for an organized thunderstorm complex to evolve. However, the degree
of instability will support vigorous pulse storms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30868588 31358570 31528442 31448288 31888186 32778085
            32708046 32388034 31338103 30408133 29888190 29848296
            29838396 29938516 30248568 30868588 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the Upper Midwest as well as the central High Plains.  Other severe
thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat are possible across
the central Gulf Coast and coastal Carolinas.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Satellite/radar mosaic late this morning shows a cluster of storms
moving south along the MS River.  Mostly clear skies will promote
additional heating to the south over the coastal plain, which will
further destabilize the airmass and lead to steepening 0-2 km lapse
rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) as temperatures warm into the lower
90s deg F.  Deep-layer northerly steering flow will favor southward
movement of the thunderstorm cluster and new updraft development on
the leading edge of the cold pool.  As this convection likely
continues to develop and become surface-based through the mid
afternoon, there will be a corresponding increase in potential for
scattered wet microbursts (55-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage)
with the stronger cores.  This activity will likely push south of
the coast by the early evening.  

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will move
eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the northern Plains to Upper Midwest.  Widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the
early evening within a moist/unstable airmass near an
eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across central/eastern
ND.  Other convection may initiate and then move southeastward from
south-central Canada.  Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will
support supercells initially with a large hail threat.  The
development of east/southeastward-moving clusters should eventually
occur this evening, with scattered severe gusts possible.

Farther south and a bit more removed from the stronger cyclonic flow
aloft, additional high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by
late afternoon/early evening across the Black Hills/western NE in
the vicinity of the surface front.  Strengthening and sufficient
veering of winds with height through the mid levels should support
initial supercells capable of large hail, prior to a clustering of
these southeastward-moving thunderstorms.  The risk for scattered
severe gusts may linger through mid/late evening across the central
High Plains before increasing MLCIN encourages gradual weakening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A larger-scale low/troughing centered over the St. Lawrence Valley
will maintain cyclonic mid to high-level flow over the region this
afternoon.  The 12 UTC Charleston, SC and Newport, NC raobs showed a
very unstable airmass in place to the southeast of a cold front
draped over the Carolinas.  Veering and strengthening flow with
height will support deep-layer shear (30-35 kt) favorable for storm
organization.  The stronger storms will be capable of a
hail/wind-damage risk this afternoon.  See MCD #2112 for short-term
details through early afternoon regarding severe potential.

...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin into
the central Rockies amid steepening low-level lapse rates with a
very well-mixed boundary layer.  Since this convection will develop
along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, modest organization is
possible even though low-level moisture and related instability
should remain weak.  Occasional dry microbursts may occur, some of
which could pose an isolated threat for severe gusts.

...Maine...
Partly cloudy skies will promote some heating and resulting in
weak instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) by early to mid afternoon. 
Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs due to a 100+ kt upper
speed max overhead.  A few of the stronger thunderstorms may be
capable of a localized hail/wind risk for a few hours before this
marginal threat subsides by early evening.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/24/2026

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow
(Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts
are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado
are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will dominate most of the CONUS as an upper trough
over the Northeast ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Tuesday).
Multiple embedded impulses are expected to pivot around the upper
ridge over the central U.S., encouraging surface troughing over the
Plains states. Low-level moisture advection beneath seasonably cool
temperatures aloft, along with modest forcing for ascent with the
surface trough, will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm
development across portions of the High Plains to the Upper MS
Valley.

...Portions of the central Plains...
Upslope flow of low-level moisture toward the higher
terrain/immediate lee of the Rockies will encourage thunderstorm
development tomorrow afternoon across the central High Plains. A
deep and relatively dry boundary layer will develop through the day,
with high-based pulse cellular and multicellular storms expected
(given relatively poor tropospheric vertical shear). Lapse rates
from the surface to 500 mb will reach the 8-9 C/km range, with
robust updrafts likely. These storms will quickly become outflow
dominant, leading to the cold-pool merger and the subsequent
organization of one or more loosely organized MCSs. Given steep
boundary layer lapse rates, efficient evaporative cooling will
promote the potential of severe gusts with the more organized storm
clusters, from far southern NE to the TX Panhandle. 

...Parts of the Upper MS Valley...
By late afternoon, thunderstorms are poised to develop immediately
ahead of a surface trough as a 500 mb impulse and associated wind
maximum overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Surface dewpoints should
reach the low to mid 60s F, but will be overspread by modest
mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km), yielding 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast hodographs are elongated, with some low-level
curvature noted. Supercells are expected to be the main storm mode,
accompanied by a sparse risk of all severe convective hazards. 

...Eastern parts of the Gulf Coast...
Pulse cellular storms will develop along the Gulf Coast again
tomorrow, where mid 70s F surface dewpoints will yield enough
buoyancy to support strong thunderstorms. MLCAPE will likely exceed
2000 J/kg over several locales, with PWATS well over 2 inches
expected. As such, water-loaded downdrafts will promote wet
microbursts capable of producing wind damage.

..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

A passing mid-level wave will induce periods of locally elevated
fire weather conditions across portions of the Klamath River Basin
today. RH values may decline to less than 15% with wind gusts over
20 mph in terrain favored areas; however, spatial extent and
duration of these conditions will be limited, precluding the
introduction of highlights. 

Based on the latest guidance and observations, only minor
adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area in
the northern Great Basin and Elevated highlights in the southern
Plains. Please see the previous discussion for more details.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
A subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave will move northeastward across
parts of the northern Great Basin today. Farther south, a separate
shortwave trough will track southeastward across the
central/southern Plains -- along the northeastern periphery of an
expansive upper ridge centered on the southern Rockies. In response
to this feature, a surface low will evolve slowly eastward across
parts of OK.

...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin...
Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing beneath a well-established
midlevel moisture plume will contribute to weak surface-based
destabilization across parts of the northern Great Basin today. As
large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel wave
overspreads this instability, isolated high-based thunderstorms will
track northeastward across the area. The deeply mixed boundary layer
(inverted-V profiles) and 25-30 mph storm motions will favor dry
thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions -- given
receptive fuels. 

...Southern Plains...
Along/behind the evolving surface low, a dry air mass (15-20 percent
RH) will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds. These dry/breezy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels
(95th+ percentile ERCs) will yield elevated fire-weather conditions
during the late morning and afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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