Hurricanes

977
ABNT20 KNHC 241755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite-wind data indicate that the low-level circulation remains
broad in association with an area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for further development, but this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
through Tuesday while it moves northward and north-northeastward,
well northeast of Bermuda. By Wednesday, the low is forecast to
move over cold waters, ending its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is centered a
few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter portions of the week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:22:52 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Pearl and Hermes
Atoll, on Tropical Depression Moke, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Iselle,
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage, but remain
disorganized, in association with a well-defined low pressure
system located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions could still
support the development of a short-lived tropical depression during
the next day or so while the system moves generally northward or
north-northeastward, before it becomes absorbed by Tropical Storm
Iselle.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south of southern Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by the end of this week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central
America late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the weekend while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well
offshore of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it drifts north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

...ISELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Iselle was located near 18.5, -117.1 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 241433
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026
 
...ISELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 117.1 West. Iselle is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the 
west-northwest on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is expected over the next 12 
to 24 hours, and Iselle could become a hurricane by tonight. Gradual 
weakening is then forecast starting later on Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle are affecting the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula, and will continue for a couple more days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2026

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 241432
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026
1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.1W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 110SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.1W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 116.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 120.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.5N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.1N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 117.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 241433
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Despite being affected by moderate west-northwesterly shear, 
Iselle's cloud pattern has continued to improve, with a core of very 
deep convection that has now rotated over and north of the center, 
and a deep convective band extending southward on the east side of 
the cyclone.  A 24/0903 UTC AMSR-2 pass also shows the improving 
structure of the inner core.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB is T3.5/55 kt, and objective satellite 
intensity estimates range from 50 to 59 kt.  The initial intensity 
has been set at 55 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the 
estimates.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310/11 kt.  A 
mid-level ridge north of Iselle is forecast to strengthen, causing 
Iselle to turn west-northwestward on Tuesday, and that motion should 
then continue through the end of the week.  The latest NHC track 
forecast is a little faster and to the left of the previous 
forecast, and lies very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) 
and the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).

Iselle remains over warm waters and within a moist environment.  
However, SHIPS and UW-CIMSS both currently analyze 17 kt of vertical 
wind shear.  Water temperatures and moisture will remain quite 
favorable for another 24 h, but the shear is forecast to increase to 
at least 20 kt between the 12 to 24 h period.  Given the recently 
improving structure, the NHC forecast continues to call for 
strengthening and system to become a  hurricane in 12 to 24 h, which 
is at the high end of the intensity model guidance suite.  However, 
given the increasing shear, there is some uncertainty as to whether 
Iselle will become a hurricane.  Beyond 24 h, gradually decreasing 
ocean temperatures and moisture will lead to steady weakening, and 
the NHC intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance 
envelope from hour 48 onward.  The latest ECMWF and GFS simulated 
satellite imagery suggest that Iselle could become a remnant low as 
early as Thursday.  I have moved forward the forecast time for 
Iselle becoming post-tropical to hour 96, but it's possible the 
cyclone could lose its convection sooner than forecast.  After that, 
the models indicate the remnant low opening up into a trough by day 
5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 18.5N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 20.5N 120.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 21.1N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 21.5N 123.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 22.0N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 22.5N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 23.1N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2026

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 241433
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026               
1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34 13  82(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
20N 120W       50  X  46(46)   4(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
20N 120W       64  X  17(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2026 15:35:15 GMT